On 17 December 2021 we released our Rate of Return information paper, the start of the Making the Instrument papers and activities. The information paper sets out the priority topics that will be the focus of the experts' Concurrent Evidence Sessions in February and calls for submissions.
Information paper
AER - Rate of return - Information paper and call for submissions - December 2021
Update
During the 2018 Rate of Return Instrument process, we received a note from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) containing two estimates related to the gamma parameter. We placed limited weight on this information from the ATO for several reasons.
We have received an update of the 2018 note from the ATO and, as noted in the Overall Rate of Return working paper and the Information Paper, we are currently investigating the possible use of the ATO note to inform gamma.
Supporting information
We have published below our correspondence with the RBA in relation to our work on the market risk premium (MRP).
HoustonKemp provided a review of the RBA's research discussion paper 2019-04, A History of Australian Equities, for Energy Networks Australia (ENA). This paper as well as HoustonKemp's correspondence is published below.
ENA - HoustonKemp review of RBA Discussion paper on market risk premium - August 2021
HoustonKemp - Internal memo re research discussion paper 2019-04 - 10 March 2022
HoustonKemp - Letter to RBA re research discussion paper 2019-04 - 11 March 2022
Submissions
We invited interested stakeholders to make submissions on both our final omnibus paper and this information paper. Submissions closed on 11 March 2022.
AEC - 2022 AER Rate of Return Instrument review - Information paper and final Omnibus paper - Submission - 10 March 2022
AGIG SAPN VPN - 2022 Rate of Return Instrument review - Omnibus papers final - Submission - 11 March 2022
APA - 2022 Rate of Return instrument review information paper and final Omnibus paper - Submission - 11 March 2022
APGA - 2022 Rate of Return Instrument information paper - Submission - 11 March 2022
Ausgrid - Rate of Return 2022 information paper - Submission - 11 March 2022
AusNet - Rate of Return 2022 information paper - Submission - 11 March 2022
CRG - Rate of Return Instrument information paper - Submission - 11 March 2022
CRG - Rate of Return Instrument information paper - Submission attachment - Expert report - Sapere
ENA - Rate of Return Instrument review - AER Final Omnibus Paper and information paper - Submission - 11 March 2022
ENA - Rate of Return - Submission attachment A - Expert report - Grant Thornton - 11 March 2022
Endeavour Energy - Rate of Return information paper - Submission - 11 March 2022
Marinus Link - Rate of Return information paper - Submission - 11 March 2022
NSG - AER Rate of Return information paper and Omnibus final working paper - Submission - 11 March 2022
QTC - Submission - AER Rate of Return information paper and final working papers
QTC - Submission attachment - Synergies Feb 2022 - Summary of independent expert report analysis
QTC - Submission attachment - PTRM-weighted trailing average cost of debt example
TransGrid - AER Rate of Return final Omnibus paper - Submission - 11 March 2022
Letter from the Consumer Reference Group to the Independent Panel - 16 March 2022
Late submissions
On 11 April 2022, we received the following memo from ENA summarising their views on reaching a cost of equity estimate in the 2022 Rate of Return Instrument applying regulatory discretion.
ENA Memorandum - Follow-up to AER Board Discussions on RORI - 30 March 2022
Evidence session
As part of our stakeholder engagement on the 2022 Rate of Return Instrument we held evidence sessions to hear expert opinions about the proposed instrument. We called for nominations of eligible experts and also considered whether there are other expert opinions that can inform our decision. The Evidence Sessions were held in four 2.5 hour sessions across two separate days, 10 and 17 February 2022.
Session number | Session date | Session time (AEDT) | Topics to be covered | Experts |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 10 February 2022 | 9:30 am to 12 noon |
Energy Infrastructure Credit Equity beta |
|
2 | 10 February 2022 | 1:30 to 4 pm |
Term of rate of return Weighted trailing average |
|
3 | 17 February 2022 | 9:30 am to 12:30 pm | Market Risk Premium |
|
4 | 17 February 2022 | 2:00 to 4:30 pm |
Cross-checks Overall rate of return |
|
A detailed agenda for each session is available below. The sessions were closed to allow detailed and natural discussion between the AER Board and the participating experts.
A meeting note from the experts conclave held on 27 January 2022 is available below as well as additional questions received from stakeholders for consideration.
AER - Concurrent evidence session 1 - Proofed transcript - February 2022
AER - Concurrent evidence session 2 - Proofed transcript - February 2022
AER - Concurrent evidence session 3 - Proofed transcript - February 2022
AER - Concurrent evidence session 4 - Proofed transcript - February 2022
Dinesh Kumareswaran - Session 1 - Equity Beta presentation - February 2022
Tom Hird - Session 1 - Equity Beta confidence interval exhibit - February 2022
Martin Lally - Session 2 - Term of the rate of return - February 2022
Graham Partington - Session 2 - Weighted Trailing Average presentation - February 2022
Tom Hird - Session 2 - Weighted Trailing Average presentation - February 2022
Jonathan Mirrlees-Black - Session 3 and 4 - MRP and cross checks - February 2022
James Hancock - Session 4 - Cross-checks and overall rate of return - February
Jonathan Mirrlees-Black - Session 4 - Addendum on financeability - March 2022
AER - Correspondence with Glenn Boyle - Debt questions - 28 January 2022
Martin Lally - Some thoughts on the upcoming expert sessions - 30 January 2022
Dinesh Kumareswaran - Correspondence with AER - Additional question - 2 February 2022
Dinesh Kumareswaran - Issues for discussion at the Concurrent Evidence Sessions - 1 February 2022
Graham Partington - Comment on Lally's term analysis - 7 February 2022
Martin Lally - Expert session 3 - MRP further notes - 18 February 2022
Update
We commissioned this work following stakeholder submissions on the Overall rate of return draft working paper that Regulated Asset Base (RAB) multiples should be used as a cross check. Cambridge Economic Policy Associates (CEPA) were engaged to analyse RAB trading multiples and their report is now published below. We will accept submissions on the CEPA report along with submissions on the draft rate of return Instrument.
Submissions
In response to the publication of the CEPA report, ENA and AusNet Services have provided the following submissions.