The AER’s wholesale markets quarterly report analyses trends in the electricity and gas wholesale markets, focusing on the most recent quarter, and alerts participants and stakeholders to issues of concern. The quarterly reports include discussion of prices, demand, generation, contracts, market outlook and new entry and exit. These reports are now more concise and made available sooner after the quarter’s end to address the need for timely market information, including reporting on the impact of the Federal Government’s Energy Price Relief Plan.
Insights – October to December 2024
The influence of both seasonal factors and supply conditions were evident across the wholesale gas and electricity markets in the October to December 2024 quarter. Significant coal outages and higher-priced offers, combined with interconnector limitations and more variable demand profiles, drove price outcomes and resulted in notable differences between the northern and southern regions.
Average prices for both gas and electricity were higher in Q4 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. This contributed to annual average prices for the 2024 calendar year also being higher than the previous year, though lower than those recorded in 2022. Compared to the previous quarter, electricity prices rose in the northern regions but fell in the southern regions.
Electricity prices were more volatile across the day, as more expensive fuel types were needed outside hours of high solar generation output (both grid-scale and rooftop solar generation sources).
New records were set in Q4 2024 in relation to rooftop solar output, the highest number of negative-priced 30-minute periods, minimum daily electricity demand and entry of new registered generation capacity
NEM conditions put upward pressure on downstream gas market prices during November and December due to increased gas-powered generation demand, most notably in Queensland. Other domestic gas demand remained muted this quarter, with downstream gas demand reaching record low levels similar to Q4 2023, while export demand increased to record levels. This contributed to record levels of gas flowing north for this time of year, and a price differential emerging between the Brisbane and Victorian downstream markets.